Bitcoin price appears to be slipping from yesterday’s high as the market starts taking profit. If trade can hold price above $260 and 1620 CNY for only a few more days, a bullish cross-over in the daily chart will shift the bias in favor of the bulls.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 05h15 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price has returned to test the critical $261 / 1620 CNY support level.
A critical moment has arrived in the market, as Bitcoin price retests the envelope line that has contained advance.
Yesterday saw a highly significant development when price advanced above the 1-day 200MA. The 1-day 20MA (green) is pushing up behind price and may cross above the 200MA in the coming days. This MA signal is a pivotal sign that price action could switch to bullish mode.
However. However: the market is currently grappling with a combination of unusually strong support and resistance lines above and below it.
- From 2013 – the $260 April top.
- The 1-day 100MA’s 10% envelope so frequently mentioned during the past few weeks.
- A Fib line from the January high, as well as a trendline capping the recent advance’s wave highs.
The market may continue wrestling with $260 / 1620 CNY and even dip below it only to push back up, and the contention may last for hours or days.
Despite an imminent 20MA / 200MA bullish cross-over, the possibility of a decline back to $235 and 1475 CNY remains. MA consolidation may not be over just yet.
Yesterday, xbt.social member “P” pointed out that the order ladder down to $235 in the Bitfinex orderbook has not been canceled. Perhaps the owner will still do so, or perhaps there is an expectation that price could make one last dip to the downside before advance resumes. The indicator divergence to the current high, at all timeframes, seems to support this bearish possibility.
Should price hold above $260 / 1620 CNY and the 1-day 20MA cross above the 200MA in the coming days, we will have confirmation of a larger advancing wave and two months of patience will be rewarded.
Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market… I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is not well to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing. – Jesse Livermore
Equally true in a bull market. Patience.
Whether price holds position above $260 and 1620 CNY, or slips into a deeper correction, the signs are plain to see: Bitcoin price will soon have a bullish technical chart set-up, and global economic events are resulting in market conditions that could fuel a Bitcoin rally: credit instability, fiat insecurity and the need for value preservation.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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