Bitcoin price analysis for the week ending 20th April 2016 was bullish, as price broke levels and made new highs.
The price of bitcoin stirred up bullish sentiments, reviving hopes of a continued trend from September 2015. Over the month of March price has been trading within a range, marked by $423 on the upper and $403 on the lower limit. Simultaneously, bitcoin has been gradually creeping up a trendline, that has been a support for higher and higher lows. This week was exciting to watch, as price broke through $423 resistance, topping off at $439 on Bitstamp seen on this 1 D chart below.
For a while now, since $382 low on March 5, breaking up above $423 was tried multiple times, it finally broke this week. In the past 4 days, price retraced from $438, coming back down to find support at $423. This level formed the base for a renewed attempt at $440 that is unfolding as of writing this.
$440 level, in bold on the above 3 day chart, is the level to beat as it dates back to December 2015. Above that, a zone up to $460 is the penultimate test of bitcoin’s intent to continue on an uptrend. Bitcoin has had the lowest 30 day and 60 day volatility in history at 0.74% and 1.31% estimates respectively. Price is still in a largely sideways trend, but now, on a wider range between $440 and $400.
The most important pattern is this pennant, a symmetrical triangle, a textbook continuation pattern that the whole market is watching. Even at current $438 level, traders are not 100% convinced of a confirmed breakout. Breaking $440 and holding above will add confidence, a further rise up above $460 would open doors to full blown FOMO.
“BTC-e just broke out of the wedge by about $0.10. That’s all the main western exchanges with breakouts confirmed now. CNY exchanges still lagging, and it’s a bit tricky to see where the breakout should occur, but seems that 2880 would definitely confirm it.”
Current price levels have never been as crucial, since September 2014, marked below by (2). Back then, price continued on a bear trend, selling off $248 over a 2 month period.
We are looking at the same order of magnitude, of a break up from the current pattern at (3) and continued bull trend. (1) is obviously a key resistance level, price has oscillated around it since November’s $504 high. It is an uncanny resemblance, that only adds to uncertainty.
On a larger timeframe, the chart from December 2013’s $1163 all time high shows similarities between the pattern forming now and one from September 2015 before the run up to $504, and May 2014’s run up to $704. Targets for a pop out of the triangle range from $650 – $780.
“we have seen the price pushing further and further out of a monthlong “triangle”, and it seems like the price is gaining momentum and that breaking $440 will be the trigger on a much greater price movement. Put on your seatbelt!”
Bitstamp Bitcoin exchange close to acquiring EU wide license
Bitstamp, one of the world’s largest bitcoin exchanges, is close to finalizing a deal with the Luxembourg government, that will see it expand regulated and licensed services to more European countries. Coindesk reported a possible payment institution (PI) or electronic money institution (EMI) license from regulators. This opens up 28 EU countries for business for the Slovenia based company
Kraken Bitcoin Exchange Secures Series B Funding from Japanese Broker
Finextra reported San Francisco based Kraken exchange, the largest bitcoin/euro volume and liquidity exchange, secured an undisclosed sum of funding from Money Partners Group, a forex broker firm listed on Tokyo’s Stock Exchange. Referring to it as a business alliance, CEO Jesse Powell looked forward to a strategic partnership to expand its global presence offering bitcoin trading, bitcoin settlement service, and blockchain-based derivative trading.
Money Partners Group President and Representative Director Taizen Okuyama said,
“Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology will bring about a future in which digital and digitized assets are commonplace”
Virtual Currencies, blockchain tech to feature in Euro Parliament Conference
The European Parliament will organize a 4 day non-commercial conference to drill down on the rapid developments in the FinTech space. Distributed ledgers and virtual currencies, arguably hot topics right now, will be talking points for UN, World Bank, Europol, IMF, OECD, and Bank of International Settlements representatives.
Certainly a good sign to see regulatory authorities and mainstream agencies dipping their toe into virtual currencies and blockchains. A stark difference compared to 3 years ago.
Syed Kamall, a member of parliament hosting the event said
“Legislators internationally are now looking at this area and how to protect the consumer while stimulating innovation. For a strong and comprehensive policy and regulatory framework, collaboration based on in-depth understanding of the technology and open debate is vital.”
Bitcoin Weekly Price Forecast
I am bullish over the next 2 months. I expect price will continue up past $500 and with that, FOMO will fuel a price rise to at least $650. The halving event in July will make for an interesting halving bubble, and I will not be surprised to see price as high as $800.
This week, I expect $440 to get tested several times and break, heading up to $450. I expect $430 – $450 to be the new trading range for consolidation, before a proper go at recapturing $500.