Bitcoin Price Analysis: Exchanges And NY Residents

Market Thoughts

The news is still coming in over the possible reasons for the big price fall yesterday, which resulted in a $20 drop in bitcoin’s price. The most likely candidate is speculation over the effects of New Yorks BitLicense, which goes into full effect this week. In the last 24 hours we have learned that one of the most popular exchanges, Bitfinex, is going to shut down the accounts of New York residents, and competitor Kraken will be following suite.

In trading positions are usually accumulated in the anticipation of an event. The run up during the Greek crisis can most likely be attributed to traders expecting Europeans to diversify some of their assets. When the news broke that there will be another loan to put Greece further into debt, and push this problem further out in time, many looked to take their profits and the price subsided. The trading community appears to be having a similar reaction to the BitLicense.

Logic might say that all of these exchange announcements would cause people to fill up their accounts with bitcoins before shutting them down, since it’s much easier to move than the Dollar, but perhaps enough people are seeing this as a detriment to the ecosystem and positioning their trades accordingly. It is also difficult to say how much impact New York residents have on the trading price of bitcoins. The statements from currently non-compliant exchanges seem to indicate that it’s not much, hence their reluctance to assume the extra costs of compliance.

We will judge the situation when things calm down, as they appear to be doing at time of writing with the price in the $265 area. The Bitcoin trading market is much more mature then even 6 months ago and the

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