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Bitcoin Price Analysis: XT Hardfork Has Insufficient Support

Bitcoin XT has failed to attract majority support and has not achieved 750 blocks in the best chain at its activation date.

This analysis is provided by xbt.social with a 3-hour delay. Read the full analysis here. Not a member? Join now and receive a $29 discount using the code CCN29.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 05h00 UTC

BTCC 1-Hour Chart

Selection_20160110_004

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

According to Gavin Andresen’s BIP101 specification that is implemented in Bitcoin XT:

Deployment shall be controlled by hash-power supermajority vote (similar to the technique used in BIP34), but the earliest possible activation time is 2016-01-11 00:00:00 UTC.

Activation is achieved when 750 of 1,000 consecutive blocks in the best chain have a version number with the first, second, third, and thirtieth bits set.

And, as recorded at fan-site xtnodes.com, the number of BIP101 mined blocks during the last 1000 blocks is zero:

Selection_20160110_001

Meanwhile, Mike Hearn has apparently found his true calling by being hired as the R3 Consortium’s Lead Platform Engineer. R3 has partnered with 30 of the largest banks to implement blockchain technology in the global banking system.

Andresen and Hearn famously generated a 2015 blocksize opera by flouting science in favor of emotive rhetoric. If blocksize were not urgently increased, they warned the public and Bitcoin businesses, “Bad Things will happen” and “there will be chaos”. During November and December of 2015, the Bitcoin protocol consistently hit (and sometimes exceeded) its blocksize capacity limit without any newsworthy incidents.

Doctor Pieter Wuille announced his Segregated Witness proposal in Hong Kong during the second session of the Scaling Bitcoin 2015 workshop. The proposal has been widely acclaimed for its benefits of:

1. Fixing Transaction Malleability
2. Enabling fraud proofs
3. Simplified consensus code
4. Reducing the amount of data being stored in new blocks
5. Allowing non-contentious blocksize scaling

Summary

The positive change in fundamental factors underlying Bitcoin’s value is reflected in the price chart. An ambiguous price pattern that previously resembled a price correction (prior to additional decline), now, looks to be a large base for advance that had developed as the market entered 2016. A cautious pullback into this weekend appears to be finding technical support around 2900 CNY and $440 (Bitstamp).

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

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Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin price chart.

What do readers think? Please comment below.

This analysis is provided by xbt.social with a 3-hour delay. Read the full analysis here. Not a member? Join now and receive a $29 discount using the code CCN29.

Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.LA. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.

Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

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