Bitcoin Price Capitulates; Retest or Breakout?

In this morning’s Bitcoin price watch piece, we highlighted the levels we were looking at in the Bitcoin price for today’s session, and suggested we would look to get in on any breakout volatility—dependent upon whether the action allowed us to maintain a positive risk/reward profile.

Action has now matured, and as we head into tonight’s Asian session, what are the levels we are looking at this evening, and how can we look to get in and out of the markets according to our intraday strategy? As ever, take a glance at the below chart to kick things off, and to gain a little insight into how we are approaching the markets.

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First up, it’s worth noting that action today has been relatively flat. We’ve had a pretty strange week, and today’s seeming capitulation has reinforced that strangeness. After shooting through $400 mid-week, Bitcoin reached highs of $425 before correcting (and retesting) the $400 level as support.

Support held, and we have since traded back up to $420, only to correct towards current levels at $415. Tonight’s range is defined by the aforementioned $420 to the upside, and in term support at $407.55. These are the two levels to keep an eye on, and are the two that will signal entry if broken.

So, what’s our strategy? Well, we are going to keep things pretty tight from a reward perspective, meaning or risk must also be pretty tightly defined. To the upside, a close above $420 will put us long towards a scalp target of $425. A stop around $417.5 gives us a risk-reward profile of 1:2—perfect.

Looking the other way, a close below in term support at $407.55 will signal short entry towards $400 flat. A stop around $410 is an attractive placement on this one.

Charts courtesy of Trading View

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