Bitcoin price decline continued all day, and pattern analysis shows $400 (Bitstamp) is a likely target during the coming 24 hours.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 16h00 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price has remained below the 1-hour 20-period moving average (green) and 200-period moving average (red) since yesterday’s drop-off and all the timeframes below 1-week are now bearish. Two technical factors mitigate the possibility of strong decline:
1) price remains above $400
2) price is still above the long-term ascending support line (grey) just below $400
The current chart pattern corresponds to a price pattern seen at the start of April 2015 – exactly a year ago (not shown). Another correspondence in the 1-hour chart will be considered in a moment.
At the April 2015 instance price had declined to a 1.618 Fib extension, as is usual in the bitcoin price chart.
Presently, if a similar pattern is indeed unfolding, we have the 1.618 Fib extension near $370, and the level of the 2.618 Fib level is at $320 (Bitstamp).
However, the depth charts show many buy orders just below $400: some of them take profit orders on short positions, some of them buy orders for long positions. The factor that suggests that price action will slice through that wall of buy orders can be found in the 1-hour price chart shown above.
The initial two-thirds of three similar declining waves are circled in the chart. The size of the current declining wave is closer to the scale of the pattern on the left, circled in magenta. Yet, regardless of scale, the wave on the left had declined exactly to a 2.618 Fib extension target.
Judging by the degree of development of the current decline, it appears to be correcting prior to its third wave of decline. According to the Fib extension levels discussed above, that would put the next wave low at either $370 or $320. If it is a terminal wave of decline then an additional fifth wave would complete the decline, potentially below $300. For now we look to a primary target at $370 and a secondary target at $320.
Bitcoin price decline has abandoned the meandering of the past three weeks and is heading for critical support at $400 (Bitstamp). Pattern comparison implies price will breach $400 and target $370 and, potentially, $320 or lower.
Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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