Bitcoin price made a new corrective low today of $239 in the Bitfinex chart although the BTC-China low of 1489 CNY made on the weekend remains intact. Price is currently pushing higher – away from the day’s low.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 16h58 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Massive orders are building up just below $240, so it is possible that price could bounce at this level to return later, or that trend may reverse into advance. Until we see confirmation of decline or a strong reversal, we continue waiting.
At xbt.social our trading method and objectives do not make provision for scalping. However, given the current chart’s erratic price action, and since we are waiting for confirmation of a move, it may be useful to look at some scalping tactics.
Bitfinex 5-Minute Chart
The price chart is currently in a corrective phase and corrective waves are notoriously difficult to trade. The one minute it looks like one direction and the very next price does double the distance in the opposite – deceptive and frustrating. Usually, one loses more funds than you make when trying to trade a correction such as the one we’ve been in since the weekend.
If you absolutely must trade it, such as in a competition, then a good strategy is to consult the 1-hour and 4-hour charts to determine support and resistance levels in the region. Next, open both a 15-minute and 5-minute chart and trade the indicators, like you would fly an aeroplane by instruments. Play the range between support and resistance and execute scalping trades based on both 5- and 15-min charts showing indicator extremes. For example, in the 5-minute chart above, an RSI and MACD low followed by divergence to the downside is a high probability signal to close a short trade and switch direction and go long. Getting confirmation of extremes in the 15-minute chart serves as confirmation of turning points.
Note the magenta circles around instances of stochastic divergence (top-most panel). xbt.social’s analysis chart indicators signal instances of divergence with red and green dots. In this case the stochastic indicator served to confirm price reversal after obvious RSI or MACD divergence (illustrated with magenta lines on both price and indicator).
The red circle at top right (RSI) is an example of reverse divergence: price makes a lower high but the indicator makes a higher high in relation to the previous wave. It is often a strong signal that reversal to a new low (or high if in an oversold position) will occur. [And that’s exactly what happened subsequent to this write-up!]
Patience is the key to success not speed. – Jesse Livermore
State of the leaderboard at the bottom of the wave down at 13h30 UTC.
node42 leads and is a whisker ahead of darwin72 followed in 3rd place by jasget. These traders are holding short positions and the flick-flacking price action has shaken out all of Monday’s traders who speculated long.
The overall outlook has not changed since the weekend: price is slowly working its way down to $240 and 1590 CNY. If price breaches this level then a decline to a primary target at $235 is expected with additional potential targets at $230 and perhaps $222. Resumption of advance is not impossible but price will have make several confirmations to convince us that the downside is complete.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.