The current Bitcoin price correction, since the 30 June high around $265 and 1665 CNY, has been tracing a path similar to the previous 17-25 June correction. Should the market take this pattern to its logical conclusion, we can expect another advancing wave and for trade to take price to a new high. However, alternate scenarios may be introduced by developments in Greece, this weekend, and technical analysis looks for the pivotal price levels traders should look out for.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 06h15 UTC
BTC-China 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Bitcoin price is holding above the 1-hour chart’s 200MA.
The market has been trading price in a similar price pattern to the previous correction, and consequently, another advancing wave to a new high may begin today, or in the coming days.
This view is also confirmed by yesterday’s chart analysis that had identified regular divergence (between price and the momentum indicators) between the highs of 17 and 30 June, followed by reverse divergence (between price and the momentum indicators) on the indicator lows of 25 June and 1 July.
So, price pattern repetition; confirmed by technical analysis – what are we waiting for? Let’s position long! Not so quick. We have to look before we leap. There are also technical indications that suggest a turn back below $250 and 1550 CNY.
The scenario whereby price reverts to decline, does not imply a deterioration to below the support floor ($210-220), instead, a natural second wave pull-back is implied by Elliott Wave Principle. Wave 2 (in this scenario’s wave count) could target anywhere between $240 to $210.
The watershed level that will confirm decline is the 1-day chart’s 200MA, currently at $250 and 1550 CNY and annotated by a horizontal red line in the chart above.
Of course, holding above this critical moving average and then advancing implies a higher high – it depends on where the market’s mood swings to, and how events in Greece, this weekend, will affect social mood.
We observe how price action negotiates the $250 / 1550 CNY level and then look out for our xbt.social MA trade signal – it’s going to be either buy or sell – and the respective targets are $280 / 1700 CNY and $236 / 1475 CNY.
He that can have patience can have what he will. – Benjamin Franklin
Traders and investors should observe how Bitcoin price action negotiates the $250 / 1550 CNY level. Holding above this level and then advancing should see the market trade price to $280 /1700 CNY. Dropping below and a crossover of the hourly chart’s 20-period moving average below its 200-period moving average should target, at least, $236 / 1475 CNY. A defiant Greek “No” vote, on Sunday, should generate the requisite amount of fear and uncertainty that could see many investors flee to Bitcoin as a safe haven and value store.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.