Bitcoin price is holding above the rising support level near $276. Overhead, price faces some obstacles and may not advance immediately, but a larger advance seems more and more likely – with certain risk caveats, as outlined below.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 04h33 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
As discussed in yesterday’s last analysis post, price has not been advancing strongly due to sluggish moving averages following the weekend’s slow downward correction.
Price is holding above the 1-day 20MA support and has advanced above the faster 1-hour MAs since Monday’s low.
The immediate obstacles to advance are a strong horizontal support-and-resistance zone around $280 and the 1-hour 200MA – currently just above $283. The market has had several opportunities to sell-off but which it has chosen not to pursue – the exception being BTC-e (and its frequent spikes) where price visited $150 on Saturday night. Yet, similar to the rest of the exchanges, BTC-e has been making higher highs and higher lows since 00h00 UTC on Monday.
While the bias of expectation is toward consolidation, at current levels, prior to continuation of advance, there are alternate scenarios:
- The market may fail to pierce overhead resistance and fall back into a negative bearish mood. A challenge on the 1-day 20MA near $276.60 will warn of this outcome.
- B) With an alleged “stop hunt” conducted by Citibank in the precious metals markets, yesterday, we cannot exclude the possibility of Citibank, or another large player, doing the same in the Bitcoin chart. BTC-e may have been a test-run and with its low liquidity the Bitcoin market is prone to downward spikes. Not to cry wolf – just a caution of a plausible, ‘though unsubstantiated, eventuality.
The only protection against the latter “unknown unknown” is to either be out of the market until advance is confirmed, or to have an equal-and-opposite stop sell order (“trigger” order) below price – in other words, a hedging strategy as explained in this xbt.social analysis update.
xbt.social member commentary:
I’m more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your losses get out of hand. – Marty Schwartz
For now we expect advance to the 1-hour chart’s 200-period moving average from where we will assess forward market direction and intent from the wave pattern and moving averages alignment. Downside risk scenarios cannot be ruled out, but they would be extra-ordinary events for which an effective mitigating hedging strategy is suggested above. An eventual retaking of the $300 level will confirm a new advancing wave.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.LA. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.