Bitcoin price has been is drawing into a narrowing range following the recent high near $280 / 1740 CNY, and the implication is that a directional move is pending. The possibility of a fake-out, to either direction, exists and analysis looks at the signals of caution to aid a buy entry.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 04h51 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Several indications in the chart imply that a move higher is pending.
- MACD, bottom, has settled on its zero line
- MACD’s Bollinger Bands are contracting
- RSI, top, has reduced amplitude and is in the middle of its range
- Price is tending to a rising 20MA (green) and positioned above the red 200MA
Before starting to build a position it is worth considering some cautions from previous price waves. Notice that from 22 June MACD was also contracting with all the conditions listed above being true at that time. Yet, price turned down to form a final corrective wave before the advance resumed.
The 20MA is our bellwether in this case. Once price starts advancing it should remain above the green 20MA. Any candle open and close below it – especially accompanied by MACD declining below its zero line – is a signal that market momentum to the downside can draw price below the 200MA.
The optimal moment of entry, both safe and low-risk, will be discussed with xbt.social members in this morning’s next update.
Taking small losses is part of the game. Taking large losses can take you out of the game. – Doug Kass
Until proven otherwise we assume that the direction of trend remains up. Bitcoin price action has been drawing sideways and may continue doing so. However, being too cautious could result in missing an opportunity. The use of the 20MA in the 1-hour chart is useful for making a position building entry with a tight stop loss. As outlined in previous analysis, advance above $280 implies a target near $300 / 1860 CNY. Should price fail to advance above $280 and return below the 1-hour 200MA, then $250 / 1550 CNY beckons.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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