Bitcoin price is drawing sideways above $240. This is the level of the 1-hour chart’s 200-period moving average as well as an annual price pivot – a level of support and resistance derived from 2014. Repeated attempts on this level implies that the market wants to trade price into decline.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 18h23 UTC
Bitfinex 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
As can be seen in the 1-hour chart, the conditions of our Trade Recommendation are fulfilled. Price had corrected upwards, the indicators signaled a reversal, and MACD pushed below its signal line, as well as its zero line. In the BTC-China chart, however, MACD is still above the zero line and across all charts the market is dithering after a single red candle.
Given the resistance immediately below price at $240, a “dithering” sideways-to-up B wave may form at current levels. Such a price path will eventually bring MACD into compression and herald the next wave down – through resistance – and into what should be the last small wave of decline for this consolidative phase we’ve been enduring for the past 4 months.
Decline targets are uncertain: will price target the lower white envelope at $215 in the daily chart? Or will the 1-hour 800MA halt decline at $234? At an extreme, there is a an overlap of a 2.618 Fib level and an outstanding magnetic line target at $194… good grief.
For now we take our cues from the daily chart reverse divergence, the downward rejection from the daily 200MA and 4-hour indicators that have not signaled any end to decline.
In order to achieve superior results, an investor must be able – with some regularity – to find asymmetries: instances when the upside potential exceeds the downside risk. That’s what successful investing is all about. – Howard Marks
kaymuddin has taken the lead with a respectable 104% profit and a 3% lead on her nearest competitors. If she can keep that lead with some clever positioning during the last few hours of this round, she will win the competition.
hackedprogrammer and imas are in 2nd and 3rd position, both with profit in excess of 100%. An exhilirating week of trading in an unexpected Bitcoin price surge.
The prospect of decline returns – not necessarily to new lows but perhaps back to support nearer $230 or $220. Questions about Bitcoin’s future direction came into the spotlight last week when Mike Hearn revealed his and Gavin Andresen’s ambitious plans to unilaterally fork Bitcoin and rebrand it as Bitcoin XT (sounds like a motor oil) but for all the strutting and fretting it looks like they might end up calling their caper MikeGavCoin.
Traders should consider selling on a price decline below $240 in the Bitstamp chart, as per the analysis above. It’s a significant level and one more dip below would fit with this years wave pattern.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from JD Hancock.