Bitcoin price is reattempting a move higher but the progress is slow and both technical and sentiment analysis shows a bearish mood in the chart.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Yesterday’s technical analysis concluded that the outlook for bitcoin price is bearish while it fails to break above the prevailing resistance ceiling (blue down-sloping line in the chart). Ongoing analysis is informed by the position of price in relaiton to this ceiling: if the market can successfully trade price above it, we can expect continuing advance. As long as price remains below it, we can expect another series of lower lows.
Mood analysis also biases the outlook to continuing decline. The Bitcoin ecosystem is engaged in infighting and discord. Some parties have planned (and are staging) an aggressive hi-jacking of the block chain. The reasons cited for an “urgent” need for bigger blocksize are emotive but have no demonstrable scientific basis.
Querying Google Trends with the search term “bitcoin” shows that popular interest in Bitcoin has waned despite increased media and corporate/financial sector interest in the blockchain (so-called “Open Ledger Technology”).
That Google search interest correlates positively to the bitcoin price chart can be interpreted as a sign that Bitcoin is still popularly viewed as a mere speculative phenomenon. When the larger public begins to appreciate the value and meaning of Bitcoin it will, no doubt, reflect in both search engine statistics and in the price chart.
Sentimental and social mood analysis reveals public disinterest, for the most part, and Bitcoin ecosystem discord. While most participants in the market believe in the fundamental value of Bitcoin, it is a market truism that negative mood pulls price down.
Bitcoin price seems to be trending lower. The market has an escape route back into advance less than $20 above current price. Technical analysis and social mood implies that the bears dominate the price chart at this time, so failure to push above the prevailing resistance near $450 (Bitstamp) should see price decline to $400 in the coming days.
If the topic of social mood analysis interests you, have a look at research at the Socionomic Institute.
For a perspective on the state of Scaling Bitcoin, read the interview with BTCC COO, Samson Mow.
Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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