The bitcoin price chart has been sluggish with trade volume gradually decreasing during the past several weeks. The ever-present prospect of a potential price rally motivates most bitcoin speculators to continue hoping despite a protracted bear market.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 15h20 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
We’re finally seeing the 1-day moving averages consolidation that was discussed in Long-Term analysis at the beginning of the year. The only fundamental change that has happened since then is the consensus breach that accompanied the release of XT and its proposed hardfork of the blockchain in February 2016. Without reiterating the meaning or implications of this, suffice to say that it has introduced insecurity and uncertainty to the Bitcoin ecosystem, with question marks over its future prospects. Uncertainty and fundamental devaluation of an asset does not inspire confident and optimistic investment (buying).
The psychological and social implications may therefore bias speculators toward a cautious attitude in relation to Bitcoin. Although much of the negative mood and mud-slinging that accompanied the XT schism has waned, the prospect of contention – a “showdown” – next February remains on the horizon. Some participants fear for Bitcoin’s survival while others foresee a “concurrent two chains” future. Whatever one’s perspective on the matter, the fact of uncertainty remains and, with all things remaining equal, its net effect should be bearish for the bitcoin price chart.
The 1-hour chart indicators are neutral. They have been ranging in the middle of their indicator ranges and MACD is trailing close to its zero line despite price variation.
Price is trading below the 20MA but above the significant 200MA and the immediate outlook is that, should price decline lower it will pull the green 20MA below the 200MA and potentially form a well-defined sell signal. On the other hand, and judging by the price action on the left of the 1-hour chart, price may continue drawing sideways at the current level until the 200MA rises to it and then begin the final wave of advance to the 1-day 100MA near $254 (Bitstamp).
I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have. – Paul Tudor Jones
The combined outlook of an ambiguous chart, uncertain market and long-term bearish bias is that price will most likely push to the 1-day 100MA before decline resumes.
Bitstamp orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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