Bitcoin trading has sold price down inside a descending channel. The failed attempt on $300 has cooled bullish exuberance and the market enters the weekend in a somber mood. Several indications that price may consolidate above $270 are showing in the chart.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 06h15 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price has dipped below both the 1-hour 20-period moving average (green) and the 1-hour 200-period moving average (red) as it approaches a rising trendline that had supported the previous base of advance.
Another supporting chart feature, the 800-period moving average (purple), is rising up to meet price near $278.
The last low, this morning, had caused visible divergence in RSI (top panel), as well as divergence in MACD (bottom). The light blue Bollinger Bands around MACD are contracting and, therefore, imply a reduction in price momentum as decline requires more and more effort to make headway.
Indicator divergence implies price should find a low at support and then move toward the upper channel trendline, but it could probably break above but not into an immediate advance. Moving averages alignment suggests price should begin a consolidation process to draw the moving averages closer together. With the red 200MA and purple 800MA running parallel trajectories the consolidation process may take a while.
The apex of the two dominant trendlines above and below price has been circled in magenta. It is rare for price to target such an apex at its price level, but there is a tendency for price to react when it meets the apex in the x-axis (time).
Another reason for expecting decline to pause (or halt) in the $270s is found in the Bitfinex depth chart where a “buy ladder” of approximately 5,000 BTC runs from $275 to $270.
A Syriza party referendum, originally scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until September. Deepening recession and social mood manifests increasing radicalism in Greece. The potential of a voluntary (and begrudging) Grexit from the EMU resurfaces.
Remember the clever speculator is always patient and has a reserve of cash. – Jesse Livermore
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin price remains up. Over the short and medium-term there may be another corrective pullback before pushing back above $300. The immediate prospect is for consolidation – the time scale of which is not certain – and the outcome, whether continuing decline or a new wave of advance, is unclear. It may be prudent to remain out of the market until a clear price direction has been established.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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