Global Cooling Alert: Industrial Metals Index At Six-Year Low, Key Support Level Threatened

By Dana Lyons

On March 5, we noted that the SP GSCI Industrial Metals Index was “Hanging On The Precipice” of a major long-term support level. At the time, the global deflationary spiral was reaching its nadir as all matters of commodities and pricing metrics were reaching multi-year lows. Not coincidentally, the U.S. Dollar was soaring at the time to new 12-year highs. The concern with the Industrial Metals space threatening to break down was the inherent message vis-a-vis the global economic outlook. As we stated in the March post:

It makes sense that pricing of industrial metals (like aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, etc.) would make for a decent barometer of economic strength. These metals go into the manufacturing of a myriad of products. Thus, their pricing, i.e., a sign of the level of demand for these metals, is a tip off to the level of global economic demand present.

The failure of the Industrial Metals complex to hold key support would appear, to us, to bode ill for the global economic outlook. The key support level threatening to give way was the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (near 307) of the rally from 2009 to 2011 to which the Index had recently dropped. That level, at the time, had held for several days, confirming its relevance, and perhaps significance, as a support level.

We had seen the price of crude oil as well as the comprehensive CRB commodity Index break their own such 61.8% Fibonacci levels en route to major collapses. However, we also saw copper hold its similar level so it appeared that the Industrial Metals could go either way. Considering the lack of any bounce at all off of the 61.8% level, the chart had the looks of a continuation pattern. Thus, our suspicions were that the index would eventually break down.

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