By Stephen Hansen at Global Economic Intersect
The data for this series continues to be weak. The year-to-date volumes contracting for both imports and exports. This continues to indicate weak economic conditions domestically and globally.
Consider that imports final sales are added to GDP usually several months after import – while the import cost itself is subtracted from GDP in the month of import. Export final sales occur around the date of export. Container counts do not include bulk commodities such as oil or autos which are not shipped in containers. For this month:
As the data is very noisy – the best way to look at this data is the 3 month rolling averages. There is a direct linkage between imports and USA economic activity – and the change in growth in imports foretells real change in economic growth. Export growth is an indicator of competitiveness and global economic growth.
The continued underperforming of exports is not a positive sign for GDP as the year progresses.