In our previous litecoin analysis, we saw a market that showed bearish bias as price approached the multi-session resistance under 1.50. The 1H chart showed long tails to the upside, which indicated that bears were in charge. We also noted that the range support around 1.40 was shaky. During the May 5th session, ltcusd indeed broke below the 1.40 area initiating a near-term bearish outlook.
The 1H chart is starting to show bearish bias as price is trying to hold below the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs. A break above 1.43 would clear these moving averages and thus put pressure back towards the 1.50 high. Otherwise, if price can hold mostly below 1.40 and the 1H RSI below 60, we have bearish bias and momentum going into the next session. In this scenario, the pressure would be back towards the 1.30 low from last week.
Here are some observations from the 4H chart:
1) The prevailing trend is bearish, but the current trend seems sideways. Therefore we can say that the market is bearish-neutral.
2) Another bearish bias is based on the fact the price has held under the 200-period SMA, and is now trying to hold below the 100-, and 50-period SMAs as well.
3) There was a spike to 1.00 on April 9 and price has since drifted lower, failing to retest the high of that “spikey” 4H candle, so the bearish outlook has the parity level in sight.
4) The price range since mid-April is essentially between 1.30 and 1.50, and at the current price around 1.40-1.41, ltcusd is trading in the central pivot. Within a range, the central pivot is the “fair” price, so there is no bias. But because the prevailing trend is bearish, there is a slight bearish bias especially if price starts holding under the 1.40-1.41 area.
The best thing to do now is probably to wait for a break below 1.30, or a break above 1.50, though as noted above, we should prefer the bearish scenario.
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