It sounds unbelievable, but a new study claims to have found that the Google search can predict the Bitcoin price. Students from the University of Caliari (Italy) have examined and compared accurately the USD trading volume and the Google Trends searches over the past 12 months (to July 2015). In the study results should be read that the frequency of searches using the keyword “Bitcoin” closely related to the current volume of trade and the price per Bitcoin. Thus is to be possible a fairly accurate prediction.
Using the Pearson correlation reflecting a relationship on a scale of 1 (lowest) to +1 (highest), Martina Matta, Ilaria and Michele Marchesi Lunesu were able to identify a positive correlation with a value of +0.6. “This means the trading volume is rising or falling as fast or strong as the volume of trade,” said the student. The trio will also have found that Google Trends thanks to the high cross-correlation value (calculated using the Granger causality), good “predictive values” provides. This means that query volumes was capable of doing the Bitcoin price “in almost 3 days” to predict.
The students have already announced, to test the hypothesis in the coming weeks on social platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and Google+.