Risk-On Gets Seriously Wounded

Stocks aren’t quite as immune to financial disruption in the middle of 2015 as they had been previously. The last major, comprehensive selloff was also in tandem with “dollar” disorder back last October 15. This time, the motion was more erosion than “event”; at least until the past week. Just like crude oil, stocks lost their momentum back in early May (and broader index price indications dating back to last July and the first “dollar” rumble) and had more or less been stuck like the yuan doing nothing until the open break recently.

What may, in the intermediate term, be much more significant is that the SP Buyback Index has been sinking during the whole of that interim period. Whether or not that indicates less actual buyback activity is not clear, but the suggestion is more than reasonable given the buyback scheme as a separate equity liquidity junction. That it has continued since really March brings up more economic and corporate cash flow factors (another facet in the “dollar”, both as earnings and debt opportunity) in these companies than financial issues with the “markets” more broadly.

Whatever the case, for the first time since 2012, after today’s robust selling, the SP 500 is negative on a yearly basis. The Buyback Index is likely showing the same lack of momentum, though that is an assumption as the final index value for today’s trading hasn’t been posted.

The broader NYSE Composite is down 7.2% on a yearly basis and 8.2% since last July 3 at the “dollar’s” outset.

That brings stocks back into the same discussion as the corporate credit bubble. Junk prices continue to sell down, both retail and institutional. The HYG mutual fund broke to a new low again today, down over 10% since its high back on

Originally appeared at: http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/risk-on-gets-seriously-wounded/