According to Andrew Hallman, the Deputy Director for Digital Innovation at the CIA, machine learning has tremendously evolved. Hallman said that the Digital Innovation wing at the CIA has significantly improved “anticipatory intelligence.” Anticipatory intelligence, he described, can be used to predict various activities across the globe. It can also be used to predict future social unrest up to five days in advance.
“We have, in some instances, been able to improve our forecast to the point of being able to anticipate the development of social unrest and societal instability some I think as near as three to five days out,” said Hallman
Anticipatory intelligence uses a mesh of algorithms and analytics to predict future events. Deep learning and other forms of machine learning play into this improved anticipatory intelligence. Analysts are able to make connections between entities or events that may not have been apparent without deep learning. Not only do CIA analysts have access to CIA data sets; as of this summer, the digital wing is utilizing open data sets.
In reference to the open data sets, CIA Director John Brennan said:
It’s been a tremendous, I think, advantage as far as trying to fulfill our various missions. We’re trying to deploy