by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope
We may be through with the past, but the past isn’t through with us.
I’m a big fan of history, and although I’m not a trained historian, I wrote a book about history through the lens of financial markets called Panic, Prosperity, and Progress (which has 22 reviews on Amazon, averaging 4.9 out of 5 stars………..so it can’t be that terrible). As part of this, I enjoy thinking of the arcs of history, particularly financial history, and anticipating where we might be going. This post is just such an exercise.
I will say at the outset it is hazardous to get too caught up in narratives. The one offered by our friends in Gainesville in 2009 was along the lines of “the market will fight its way back to about 950 on the SP 500……..1,000 at the most…….and then begin its final descent to its low of 400.” I don’t have to tell you things didn’t pan out quite that way. However, my musings here aren’t based on Elliott Wave, indicators, or anything except my own vague projections about where we are heading financially and politically.
I think between now and the end of next year, we’re going to see something along these lines:
Beat the Crash: sometime before the end of October, we’re going to take out the so-called “crash” lows of August 24th. How low this is remains to be seen, although I’ll be satisfied if it’s even modestly lower. I did this post on the 20th of this month projecting what these lows might be, and most folks thought I wasn’t being bearish enough. They may be right. In fact, as I’m sitting here right now looking at that post, it would make a lot more sense to have a serious breach of the August 24 lows, considering the