It’s no Facebook IPO, but the Winklevii will take it.

On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission will hand down a long-awaited decision on whether to allow the Harvard-educated nemeses of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to launch an exchange-traded fund of bitcoins.

The Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, which would make it easier for mom-and-pop investors to buy the controversial cryptocurrency, is the big idea pursued by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss in the years since the twins’ high-profile court defeat over who founded the social media giant.

Investors increasingly have been jumping into the cryptocurrency without a safety net in the days leading up to the SEC ruling — so much so that the value of bitcoin surged price the price of an ounce of gold last week for the first time.

The scene is “not very sophisticated,” and most investors are buy-and-hold, says Marc van der Chijs, managing partner at CrossPacific Capital and a bitcoin investor.

At least one major bitcoin investor, the Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund, predicted the SEC won’t approve the exchange-traded fund — a result that “will have trapped some overly optimistic long positions,” according to a recent investor letter.

The $10 million fund, which is based in Jersey, UK, said it is selling the bitcoins ahead of the approval.

“If it turns out we are wrong (and the ETF does launch) we will certainly miss a spike and will extend this month’s underperformance into next,” the fund said.

Van der Chijs estimated that if the ETF doesn’t get approved, the value of the currency could fall as much as 20 percent. However, if it goes through it could go as high as $3,000 by the end of the year, he estimates.

“If you want to short it today you won’t be able to do it before the ETF gets launched [if it’s approved],” van der Chijs said. “It’s not as easy to do as it is with normal stock on the stock exchange.”

The value of bitcoin rose 33 percent to a high of $1,290.79 between Dec. 31 and March 3, before tapering off to about $1,167.30 on Wednesday. The price of an ounce of gold stood at $1,20.60.

That blows the Dow Jones industrial average out of the water, which this year rose  6.9 percent to its high on March 1.

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