I am faced with a conundrum tonight. You see, the ethxbt 8-hour chart is now sitting on 5th arc support. This is typically very strong support. Of course, in this business one learns to “never say never”. The support could fail. But it would be foolish, imho, to bet against that support before seeing evidence that it is failing.
But, if we accept the strong implication of this chart, it means that ethereum is going to strengthen against Bitcoin in the very near future. To be honest, this scenario did not strike me as highly probable before seeing this chart.
For the past week or so, I have been suggesting that an energy point in time on the Bitcoin chart is imminent. But my guesstimate and expectation has been that the asset would break “up” in an acceleration, rather than down. Of course, I have stressed repeatedly not to buy until we get a buy signal, a close above the arc (resistance) we have been looking at for a couple of weeks now. But still, I expected to be long Bitcoin very soon. Now I’m glad I didn’t break my rule.
Let’s look again at bitcoin’s daily chart:
Here you can see the big Sept 2 spike was 90 degrees prior to tomorrow (blue and red arrows respectively). The 2nd of the arc pair has not yielded. Will it break through tomorrow as I had been expecting (but coyly not saying out loud)? If it does, then the ethxbt 5th arc will fail. That is certainly possible. But definitely something to see, before believing.
Here is a closeup of the chart above:
Not only hasn’t the arc been pierced yet, but the Gann 1×1 from the recent swing high has not been broken either (45 degrees). If I HAD prematurely gone long Bitcoin before getting a confirming buy signal, roll of the dice as it were, I would close that position here, and wait to see if I should re-enter, even if at a higher price.
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.