Bitcoin Price Has Some Wiggle-Room


Bitcoin price has been going through the motions of ticking out a slow correction above $220 and below the 1-hour 200MA (red). The slow progress means there have been few analysis updates during the past days. At the moment there seems to be a signal in the 4-hour chart.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 04h18 UTC

Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart

Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

We have to remain patient since this condition may continue for a while.

Keeping below the 200MA implies that price will eventually fall away to the downside. We have to keep two things in mind:

1) If price climbs above the 200MA in the coming hours or days, then we have to change our outlook to additional advance.

2) At some point we expect a corrective wave to the upside (to near $250) – the current wave may be part of it, or it may only develop after another declining wave or two to new lows.

Let’s give the market more time to unfold this slow wave. We should see the beginnings of an opportunity later today or over the weekend.

Update

Time of analysis: 15h18 UTC

Although the 15min and 1hr charts have been drawing sideways – apparently without direction – the 4hr chart features a 20MA cross-over to the upside.

The implication is that price should advance toward $238 (Bitstamp) and then $250 (Bitstamp) as price moves through the decompressed moving averages. This could be the B wave forming without first making a new low.

To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate. – Jesse Livermore

Summary

The indicators are fairly overbought, so it is not easy to conceive how price will make the $20 distance to $250 without running into serious resistnce to advance. Yet, this is an MA signal in the chart – not a valid buy signal, mind you – but one that we could expect some degree of probability.

Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:

 Bitfinex depth buysell volume 22h03 280815

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Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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