During yesterday’s rally in reaction to the Greek “No” vote, Bitcoin price pushed to the upper 10% envelope of the 1-day 200MA and paused. This little known chart feature, strangely, has halted advance and the question is now whether trade will push higher or turn down from the current levels. xbt.social analysis looks to global markets for clues, as well as technical indications in the Bitcoin price chart.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 04h30 UTC
Bitfinex 1-Day Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Three consecutive waves to higher highs have reached the upper 10% envelope of the 1-day 200MA at $275 and 1700 CNY.
RSI and stochastic divergence has compounded and a move lower can now be expected, perhaps to the level of the 1-day 200MA at $250 (Bitfinex).
Volume of trade (not shown) had decreased on each of the three consecutive waves and this is another indication that the move is nearing completion. MACD does not confirm waning momentum, as we’d expect, but this same non-confirmation can be seen in MACD in relation to the mid-March high.
What increases confidence that the advancing wave is either complete, or will complete soon, is the double divergence in the stochastics (top panel), indicated with red dots. Additionally, the stochastics are grouped at an overbought extreme. Except for one anomaly, in October 2014, divergence signals given by the xbt.social stochastic indicator (blue dot to the downside, red dot to the upside), have been definitive of wave highs and lows.
Could market reaction at the start of the European trading session alter this view? Yes it could. Initial market reaction had seen gaps down in equities and the Euro forex pairs, but at the time of writing most gaps are in the process of being closed by buyers. Surprisingly, Gold had made a smaller advance on the referendum outcome than the advance it made on the news of the referendum. After an initial $6 rally, this morning, Gold is now trading below the market open.
Greeks should be united in their fight for the rule of law and against the cleptocracy, and not divided over a referendum on an absurd question. – George Kintis
Given the implications of the Greek “No” vote (and they are known negatives for the Euro zone), the muted – almost denialist – market reaction is strange. After much engine revving and scaling of tough upside resistance, Bitcoin price has paused. The chart may change later in the day as European and US traders take position. To the upside, if attempted, $280 remains a target. Downside has the $250 target waiting at the 1-day chart’s 200-period moving average.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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