Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 04/01/2016 – Short-Term Area of Interest

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price has been stalling for quite some time, and zooming in to the 1-hour chart shows that it is hitting resistance at an area of interest.
  • Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low reveals that bitcoin price is around the 38.2% to 50% levels at the moment and might be due for a drop to the previous lows.
  • These Fib levels coincide with the moving averages and a former support area.

Bitcoin price is having trouble making headway past the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which lines up with several inflection points.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA for now but a downward crossover looks ready to take place, signaling a potential turn lower. In addition, stochastic is heading south so bitcoin price might follow suit. If so, price could head back to the previous lows around $407-410.

RSI is treading sideways, suggesting that the consolidation could carry on. Bitcoin price appears to have encountered a weak support zone at $412, which might continue to keep further losses in check.

Still, if bullish pressure returns, bitcoin price could break past the 50% Fib and go for a test of the next level at $420, which also lines up with a near-term support zone.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 04/01/2016 - Short-Term Area of Interest

Market Events

The main event risk for today is the NFP release, as this might lead to stronger volatility for the US dollar. Analysts are expecting to see a 206K gain in hiring, lower than the previous month’s 242K rise, but a higher than expected result could spur prolonged rallies for USD.

On the other hand, a disappointing result could allow bitcoin price to gain the upper hand and take advantage of dollar weakness. A slowdown in employment would confirm that the Fed is likely to keep rates low for much longer, lending support to higher-yielding assets like bitcoin.

Intraday support level – $412

Intraday resistance level – $420

Charts from Bitstamp, courtesy of TradingView

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