There is a time-honored saying amongst traders that “when in doubt, stay out”. This is exactly the current recommendation. The bitcoin charts have all the reason to decline terminally, but traders are not taking the bait.
Bitcoin Trading Analysis
Time of analysis: 04h35 UTC
BTC-China 15-Minute Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The 15-minute chart shows price below the 20MA (green) ad the 200MA (red). This is bearish and we could expect continuing decline.
However, the decline is oversold. Every indication in the chart is that a move higher is due. Bitcoin price has no precedent of behaving in certain ways at certain junctures in the chart or times of the year. The raw fact is we don’t know what price may do here. Will it decline against all indications – as only bitcoin trader psychology can do? Or will price reverse here and head back to a more realistic pricing for the innovation of our time?
Sometimes it is possible to narrow down the probabilities and assess possible direction. At the moment it is not possible. The scenarios are many. The orderbooks are full-up to the downside – but are those orders real? There is strong support just below price – but will the largest players sell through it?
To the upside is $300 – the market has repeatedly shown that it is psychologically incapable of crossing $300 and sustaining price up there. So what can we say? The truth is: nothing. The market must wrestle with its own internal struggles and we stay out to avoid risk to our account.
The quote of the day reminds us that we do not have to be in the market at all times, chasing gains, when the itself market does not know where those gains are to be found. Bitcoin is adrift – a speculative rally to $300 failed to blow the block size capacity limit. A highly significant initiation of yuan devaluation failed to spark a rally. This is it for the time being, and we only have to wait for forward direction to give us technical signals.
Experienced traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains. – Jim Rohn
During the past two weeks we’ve seen the bitcoin charts assume a bearish technical disposition. Additionally, China has initiated yuan devaluation – an action with morbid deflationary prospects for global markets – and one the Fed has shied away from for months. Amid it all, bitcoin floats around like a dancing queen with no strong correlation to a deteriorating global economy. If the largest players don’t know how to cut the cake, then it’s best to stay out of this instrument until their lightbulb illuminates.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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