Part 1. The Fed’s Bathtub Economics Brigade Blathers On

In case you are wondering what the meaning of “some” is—-don’t bother. It’s just the same old Fed ritual incantation, chanted in 2/2 “cut time”. That means there are only two beats to each of its monthly meeting measures—–employment and inflation.

Like in the musical world, each beat is a half-note. But they might be better described as half-assed notes. The denizens of the Eccles Building are using BLS junk statistics to measure both variables. They don’t have a clue that they are rhythmically chanting a pretentious chorus about nothing more significant than short-run economic noise.

We got a load of evidence on that point with this morning’s Q2 GDP release and the accompanying benchmark revisions reaching back to 2012. What these fresh reports show is that this “recovery” has been even more of a dud than was previously evident, and that the Fed’s monthly claims that the US economy is inching toward some kind of Keynesian full-employment nirvana are pure rubbish.

In fact, our monetary politburo is driving the US economy in the opposite direction. That is, toward dis-employment of its true, wealth-creating economic resources—–human labor, entrepreneurial talent and market driven gains in economic factor efficiency.

Contrary to yesterday’s self-congratulatory statement, all is not well and its not getting weller. Instead, what we really have is net business destruction, faltering investment in productive assets, massive unutilized and under-utilized labor hours, falsified capital market prices, grotesque mis-allocation of investable funds, euthanized savers, zombified business enterprises, rampant financial engineering, stock-option addicted C-suites, massive waste of VC capital and stupendous over-valuation of every asset class that can be monetized, manipulated or margined.

Indeed, if we step back from the Fed’s two-note incantations and monthly economy weather reports, what we get is a truly troubling trend in the US economy’s core metric. Namely, it appears that real final sales—-a serviceable aggregate measure which is free of transient inventory fluctuations—–have nearly ground to a halt.

To wit, today’s Q2 number of $16.2 trillion represents just a 1.03% annualized rate of gain from the $15.0 trillion level posted seven-and-one half years

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