Bitcoin will lose double-digit value in 2025. At one point, Bitcoin lost more than $30,000 from its all-time high. The decline is still steep.
The first quarter is historically considered a strong period for Bitcoin – especially in the year following a halving. In the past, the cryptocurrency has often recorded double-digit gains in such years.
But 2025 will be quite different: Instead of price gains, the market is showing weakness. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently delivering their worst Q1 results in seven years. This development contradicts the typical seasonality that led investors to hope for positive momentum. The disappointment is correspondingly great.
Unsurprisingly, the mood is rather gloomy. Nevertheless, the market could still have potential – because Bitcoin may be better than many investors think.
Bitcoin is better than many investors think
The crypto market has been under massive pressure in recent weeks. Bitcoin performed disappointingly, losing significant ground compared to gold. While gold reached new all-time highs and benefited from the uncertainty in the financial markets, Bitcoin increasingly faltered. The stock markets are also showing weakness – the US indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently been trading significantly lower. What is particularly striking, however, is that while traditional markets are experiencing only moderate losses, cryptocurrencies are experiencing bloody red numbers. Sentiment has deteriorated significantly. The shock will be significant in April 2025.
Indicators such as the Fear & Greed Index occasionally point to extreme fear in the market. Many investors doubt whether Bitcoin has truly established itself as a safe haven. The bull market is being questioned and could end sooner.
But there is also reason for hope. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan points to a longer-term perspective in this context.
Despite Bitcoin’s current sideways movement and the uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic issues, the cryptocurrency has gained over 24 percent since election day – significantly more than gold or stocks. His appeal: Even if the current market phase seems frustrating, one should not lose sight of the larger context. Because in a long-term comparison, Bitcoin continues to show relative strength.
Bitcoin comeback in April?
But does Bitcoin have the potential for a comeback in April?
Crypto analyst Leo Heart points to the so-called “Bitcoin Rainbow Wave” model, which analyzes price cycles based on block production within halving periods. Each period is divided into four phases of equal length – each based on 52,500 blocks and approximately 360 days. In previous cycles, the Bitcoin price peak usually occurred in the second quarter of the period. The next Q2 of the current fourth halving period begins on April 15, 2025. Therefore, the analyst expects a new high during this period. At the same time, the cyclical low is expected for the following Q3, i.e., starting in April 2026.
It seems clear that, according to this Bitcoin forecast, no high in this cycle seems to be indicated yet – thus, Bitcoin would still be an interesting option at its current level.
Historically, April has also been a strong month for Bitcoin. On average, the cryptocurrency gained almost 13 percent during this period. Given the current market situation, it’s questionable whether this trend will continue in 2025. After all, seasonality was not taken into account in the first quarter of 2025.
Full focus on US tariffs: Buy the news?
Nevertheless, the market is currently pricing in a lot of negative things in the trade war and with uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Positive news is hardly providing any impetus anymore. Yet Bitcoin adoption continues to grow – with opportunities for bold investors even in April 2025.
Trump is likely to provide at least some clarity this week. Donald Trump is planning to announce new tariffs on imports tomorrow, April 2, 2025, the so-called “Liberation Day.” This is an announcement about new tariffs on imports. These reciprocal tariffs are intended to impose the same burden on foreign products as on US products abroad, in order to promote domestic production.
Analyst MichaĂ«l van de Poppe sees the current week as potentially pivotal for the crypto market. He contrasts gold’s strong run, with a quarterly gain of 20 percent, with Ethereum’s weak performance, which lost around 45 percent – ​​its largest quarterly decline in history. This contrasting development underscores the uncertainty in the market. Van de Poppe also points to April 2nd as a possible turning point, alluding to the well-known stock market pattern of “sell the rumor, buy the news.” This could provide a positive impetus after a period of uncertainty – because clarity is rewarded by the market. At least some more clarity is likely to emerge in the short term tomorrow.
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