In the world of cryptocurrencies, comparing current market movements with historical data is common practice. But experts warn against equating Bitcoin with its legendary bull run of 2017.
The cryptocurrency world is known for its volatility and the constant attempts to compare current market movements with historical data. A prominent technical analyst, Tony “The Bull” Severino, recently warned the crypto community against equating Bitcoin with its famous 2017 bull run. According to Severino, a critical indicator on the monthly chart paints a very different picture than many investors hope.
At the heart of Severino’s argument is the stochastic oscillator, a momentum indicator commonly used by technical analysts to analyze whether a cryptocurrency is overbought or oversold relative to its recent price range. When applied to Bitcoin on the monthly candlestick timeframe, the oscillator provides a more comprehensive view of long-term momentum trends dating back to 2013.
Severino’s outlook is aimed at market participants who are connecting the movement of the 1-month Bitcoin Stochastic Oscillator to its previous levels from 2017. The oscillator is currently hovering around 60, the same level it fell to during the correction in the 2017 bull market. However, Severino argues that this level bears little resemblance to the momentum peak of the 2017 bull market and is more in line with the beginning of the 2018 bear market.
Recent price action indicates that Bitcoin is struggling to sustain strong inflows and buying momentum. On-chain data shows that many short-term holders have halted their buying activity due to the extended consolidation, which does not bode well for a bullish outlook. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has managed to avoid a break below $80,000 and recover above $83,000.
US President Donald Trump‘s announcement of proposed tariffs shook the markets and caused volatility not only in the crypto market but also in the US stock market. While the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ declined in response, Bitcoin also fell to the $81,000 level. However, unlike its equity counterparts, it has recovered and regained ground above $83,000.
These developments could be interpreted as early signs of a decoupling from traditional financial indices. The question remains whether Bitcoin will be able to break away from traditional markets and develop its own momentum. The coming weeks could be crucial to see whether Bitcoin is able to overcome the consolidation phase and reach new heights.
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