BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin is preparing for a “period of pure appreciation” as macroeconomic conditions force the U.S. central bank to intervene. He sees a deepening crisis in the U.S. Treasury bond market, forcing investors to seek alternative safe havens.
Market loses confidence in US government policies
On April 11, the ten-year yield on US Treasury bonds rose above 4.59%, reaching its highest level in two months.
Looking at the bigger picture, it’s still moderate, and the ten-year yield is still in the range of recent years, since the US Federal Reserve began targeting inflation in 2022.
But the fact is that the ten-year Treasury yield has risen explosively in recent days. This is sending a signal to the market, and according to Hayes, this is extremely bullish for Bitcoin.
Despite the economic uncertainty, investors are currently not choosing Treasuries, which are normally a fairly safe haven. No, instead, they are now primarily switching to gold.
Sharpest decline since 2019 for Treasuries
This week, the US Treasury bond market, valued at $29 trillion, experienced a 2% decline. This was the sharpest decline since September 2019, when liquidity disappeared from the repo markets and the US Federal Reserve had to intervene.
Donald Trump‘s erratic policy regarding his import tariffs is causing chaos. These tariffs have since been withdrawn in many areas, but China is still feeling the full force of the brunt.
This makes it clear that Trump and his administration are primarily concerned with China.
At the same time, the US dollar is going through a very weak phase. Yesterday, for example, the dollar lost 1.41% against the euro. In this respect, the 1.91% increase in the price of gold in US dollars is still moderate and can be partly explained by the weak dollar.
According to the venture founder, we should prepare for a strong period for Bitcoin. “A falling dollar index (DXY) is usually a strong bullish signal for Bitcoin,”
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