Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range around the $90,000 mark following the latest Federal Reserve meeting. While the central bank signaled fewer interest rate cuts than markets had anticipated for 2026—a short-term headwind for risk assets—on-chain data tells a more constructive story beneath the surface. Institutional accumulation and converging on-chain metrics point to a strong structural support zone near $80,000.
Three Metrics, One Message
Blockchain analytics reveal a notable clustering of key support indicators. The True Market Mean, which represents the average cost basis of active market participants, currently sits near $81,000. Meanwhile, the weighted cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at approximately $83,844. In addition, the average withdrawal price of coins transferred from exchanges in 2024 is hovering around $83,000.
This convergence highlights a robust structural foundation. When Bitcoin tested the $80,000 level on November 21, the price rebounded by roughly 15%, suggesting that buyers are actively defending this zone.
Institutional behavior further reinforces this outlook. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have increased their positions, while holders of more than 10,000 BTC have largely paused selling. This pattern closely resembles accumulation dynamics observed ahead of the spot ETF launch in early 2024. Over the past 30 days alone, whales have accumulated more than 375,000 BTC.
ETFs and Institutional Momentum
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $237 million through Thursday, reversing modest outflows seen the previous week. Strategy Inc. continued its aggressive accumulation strategy, purchasing an additional 10,624 BTC between December 1 and December 7 at an average price of $90,615. The company now holds 660,624 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $49 billion.
Another noteworthy development comes from Vanguard. The asset management giant has opened its platform to crypto ETFs, granting roughly 50 million clients access to products from BlackRock and Fidelity. Internally, however, skepticism remains. Vanguard’s Head of Quantitative Equity, John Ameriks, reportedly compared Bitcoin to a collectible rather than a productive asset.
Regulatory Progress Provides Tailwinds
Regulatory clarity in the United States continues to improve. On December 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) confirmed that national banks are permitted to process crypto transactions on behalf of clients. The CFTC has withdrawn outdated guidance, while the Senate Agriculture Committee introduced a bipartisan proposal that would grant the CFTC expanded authority over digital commodities.
SEC Chair Atkins also announced plans for an “innovation exemption” for cryptocurrencies in January. In parallel, the U.S. Treasury and the UK Treasury are working on a transatlantic digital markets task force, with initial recommendations expected around March 2026.
Macro Headwinds Remain
Despite the constructive structural backdrop, short-term risks persist. The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, pressuring carry trades and, by extension, crypto markets. The Federal Reserve now projects only two rate cuts in 2026 instead of three. Additionally, Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $23.8 billion are approaching expiration, which could trigger heightened volatility.
From a technical perspective, the next resistance zone lies between $93,000 and $94,000. A sustained breakout could open the path toward $99,000, provided selling pressure remains limited. On the downside, support around $89,400 is critical to maintain.
Looking ahead, ETF flows, whale activity, and signals from the Federal Reserve ahead of its January meeting will be decisive. The battle for the $90,000 level is likely to set the tone for Bitcoin’s trajectory into early 2026.
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