Bitcoin climbed back above the $80,000 mark on Friday, April 11, after recovering 1.7% during Asian trading. However, the price is walking a fine line between a short-term recovery and the weight of a broader downtrend. A large number of expiring options and opposing RSI readings will influence Bitcoin’s price action today.
Bitcoin‘s broader market structure remains bearish. A new low was reached this week at $74,400, confirming the continuation of a longer-term downtrend. However, the price rebounded sharply from this low, forming a bullish order block on a daily basis, also known as a “bullish engulfing pattern.”
However, the upswing encountered resistance at $83,600. During the previous trading day, Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 to $78,500. However, today, April 11, the Bitcoin price is hovering near $81,000 during the European session, struggling to decisively overcome the short-term resistance at $81,500.
Derivatives expiration could increase volatility around the $82,000 maximum pain point.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart’s RSI, which is in bearish territory, casts doubt on the strength of the uptrend. However, the 4-hour chart’s RSI is above 50, a level typically associated with short-term buying pressure. This dichotomy suggests a possible short-term continuation of the uptrend, although the daily chart cautions against premature optimism.
The tension is further compounded by today’s expiration of around 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts worth approximately $2.25 billion. The put/call ratio is 0.88, indicating a fairly balanced stance between bearish and bullish bets. The maximum pain threshold is $82,000, the price level where option holders will suffer the most losses.
All eyes are now on whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 and break through $81,500. A break above this resistance could trigger a move toward the maximum pain point of $82,000, where derivatives expiration could add volatility.
Bitcoin rallied from $74,300 to $83,600 after Trump suspended new tariffs for 90 days. The rally broke the $80,000 mark but remained within a broader downtrend.
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