According to early Bitcoin investor Arthur Hayes, the crypto market is facing turbulent times. Why the Federal Reserve could cause the BTC price to explode.
The unpredictability of the Trump administration has kept Bitcoin investors and shareholders alike on edge for weeks. Whether tariff threats, saber-rattling, or the threat of a US recession – rarely has the macroeconomic situation been accompanied by so many question marks. But one early Bitcoin investor is certain that none of these factors will play a role in BTC’s price performance in the medium to long term. In a new interview, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes explains succinctly: “All I care about is fiat liquidity.” According to the crypto billionaire, where Bitcoin’s price moves now and in the future depends solely on “how many dollars, euros, yen, and yuan are created and destroyed.”
Whether the US President imposes tariffs of 2 percent or 50 percent on foreign products is “completely irrelevant,” because ultimately the US Federal Reserve will ensure the loose monetary policy that “we need to increase the value of our portfolios.” Despite the lack of interest rate cuts, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s tone clearly changed at the last press conference, even though the US inflation rate is still above the officially targeted 2 percent.
“They’re going to stimulate the economy and print more money than ever before,” the crypto billionaire predicted just a few weeks ago with regard to the US government’s plans. Bitcoin and other crypto assets could benefit massively from the new influx of money. There’s only one remaining obstacle in the short term: “April is usually a difficult month because it’s tax season in the US. April 15th is the deadline.” When investors have to pay their taxes for the previous year, Hayes said, a sell-off of various assets typically occurs.
Where the Federal Reserve Could Catapult the Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin investors have likely already experienced the worst: “We’ve probably reached a bottom at $76,000.” While it’s still possible that the BTC price will fall back to this level in the coming weeks, the crypto entrepreneur confidently states: “If I had to make a bet, I’d bet that we’re more likely to go higher than lower.”
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, recently reached a similar conclusion. In his latest crypto report, he nevertheless emphasized that “no clear catalyst for an immediate parabolic rally” is in sight. Accordingly, according to both experts, the risk of a Bitcoin crash may have been overcome, but a sideways movement of the leading cryptocurrency for several months cannot yet be ruled out.
Once this “numerically interesting” Bitcoin price is reached, crypto investors’ expectations could reach an exaggerated level due to fiat money creation. “And at that point, it’s probably time to sell everything,” warns Arthur Hayes. Strike CEO Jack Mallers recently explained why it might be worthwhile to hold onto one’s Bitcoin holdings long-term, despite short-term excesses.
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