With a current price of around $83,300, Bitcoin has been trading somewhat firmer over the past 24 hours. Nevertheless, we experienced the weakest Q1 in the last seven years. Momentum has been weak recently, lacking bullish momentum. Now, Bitcoin bulls and bears are irreconcilably opposed. One analyst predicts a parabolic rally, while another expert is already calling for a bear market. Of course, the factors cited by Bitcoin analysts are always important.
Numerous factors can influence Bitcoin’s price performance – from macroeconomic data and geopolitical events to technical indicators. Regulatory decisions and the behavior of institutional investors also play a role.
Ultimately, however, every movement can be traced back to one central principle: the interplay of supply and demand. If demand increases when supply is limited, prices rise; conversely, oversupply when demand is weak leads to price losses. Therefore, it is crucial to identify the driving forces behind supply and demand.
Now, according to on-chain data, a bullish constellation could be emerging here:
Bitcoin Analysis: Selling Pressure Declining – Is a Rally Coming?
In his current assessment, well-known crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. describes several key changes in the Bitcoin market – both on the spot and derivatives side. A particular focus is on the declining selling pressure. While around 81,000 BTC were recently for sale daily on major exchanges, this volume has now fallen to around 29,000 BTC. This development indicates a phase of declining profit-taking, which typically begins after strong price increases such as exceeding the $100,000 mark.
According to Adler, buyers are increasingly satisfied with current price levels, while supply is tightening – a condition he describes as a “zone of asymmetric demand.” This refers to a market phase in which buying interest exceeds available supply, which can structurally lead to rising prices. While we haven’t seen any sustained momentum yet, the beginning seems to have been made.
At the same time, the crypto expert also looks at the status quo on the futures market. Following the new all-time high, there was initially a sharp increase in short positions. This is common behavior among bears speculating on falling prices. However, this activity is slowly declining, which the analyst also interprets as a signal of incipient consolidation. Nevertheless, Adler points to a fundamental change: Bitcoin is now reacting much more sensitively to macroeconomic factors. This is due to the stronger connection to the traditional financial world, particularly through the introduction of spot ETFs. Institutional investors are increasingly active, which makes Bitcoin more vulnerable to interest rate policy, inflation data, and geopolitical developments. Adler therefore sees the months of April and May as a potential consolidation phase – a transition period before a new impulse could drive the market.
The following analyst also expects the Bitcoin price to continue rising due to an increasing supply shortage.
As fewer and fewer BTC are available on exchanges, so-called sell-side liquidity is ultimately declining. Even with low buying interest, this can lead to significant price increases, as the available supply is severely limited. If demand from institutional investors or ETFs continues, this effect could be further amplified. The resulting supply shortage is clearly bullish, according to the analyst.
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