Bitcoin is back in the headlines – this time with a mixture of stability, uncertainty, and surprising optimism. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at around $85,000, showing a significant recovery from its March low of $76,700. But a look at the current situation shows that the calm is deceptive.
Crisis-proof or overheated?
The past few weeks have been anything but calm for Bitcoin. The price has lost around 16 percent since its annual high in January – despite a strong start to the year. The reason: increasing political risks. US President Donald Trump‘s so-called “Liberation Day” is looming – we’ll know more this evening at around 10 p.m. ET. New tariffs could not only burden the global economy but also trigger further price fluctuations in Bitcoin. The markets remain nervous.
The Return of Recession Fears
Alongside geopolitical uncertainties, fears of a US recession are growing. Rising inflation combined with a simultaneous decline in growth – known as stagflation – are causing unrest. But some market observers see opportunities for Bitcoin in precisely this.
BlackRock, for example, surprised with an analysis suggesting that a recession could be a potential price driver for the cryptocurrency. The argument: In times of crisis, investors look for alternatives to traditional assets – and Bitcoin is becoming increasingly attractive as “digital gold.”
Price Speculation Driven by Monetary Policy
What seems paradoxical at first glance has historical roots: In phases of falling interest rates, higher government debt, and growing distrust of fiat currencies, Bitcoin often benefits significantly. The asset manager BlackRock emphasizes that BTC‘s scarcity and independence make it particularly attractive in such phases.
Large market participants are correspondingly active. According to BlackRock, institutional investors are taking advantage of the current weak phase to increase their holdings. The pullback is not seen as a risk, but as an entry point.
Dominance back – Altcoins weaken
The market is currently speaking clearly: Bitcoin dominates. With over 62 percent of the market, BTC is significantly outperforming other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. Some of these are trading well below their all-time highs and are continuing to lose ground. The so-called Bitcoin season has begun – investors are increasingly betting on the original again.
Trump, tariffs, uncertainty: What now?
Tonight could bring renewed movement. Trump’s announcements regarding “Liberation Day” and a possible XXL tariff package do not bode well – neither for the global economy nor for the markets. Bitcoin is likely to react sensitively to this – whether with a slump or a breakthrough remains to be seen.
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