The Bitcoin price is influenced by facts and news. Forecasts are based on assumptions and expectations, so no one should rely on them.
We regularly report on the facts and news that influence the Bitcoin price. In the recent past, in addition to geopolitical and other factors, the United States and its president have had a particularly strong influence on Bitcoin and crypto prices. This will likely continue for some time.
Psychological factors, including fear and greed, are always at play. If investors rush in panicked hordes in the same direction and sell all their assets, prices plummet. If greed dominates and there is a surge in buying, the pendulum swings in the other direction.
These effects are also reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment and is expressed in values ​​between 0 and 100 and in red, yellow, or green.
The fact that the index returned from the fear-ridden red zone (30) to the yellow neutral zone (45) from last Sunday to Monday is due in particular to three events. First, crypto ETFs are no longer being sold in large quantities, but are now being bought again. Second, there are hopes and the visible hint of a possible easing of tensions in the tariff trade war. And third, US Senator Cynthia Lummis underscored her Bitcoin Act with the concrete proposal that the US could buy Bitcoin with sold gold reserves. This would allow the US to continuously increase Bitcoin reserves without imposing a tax burden on US citizens.
Therefore, once again: Good news influences Bitcoin and crypto prices. And this news also influences Bitcoin forecasts from all quarters.
In contrast to news, which is usually based on concrete facts or developments, forecasts are often made from the fabric of conviction, belief, and expectation. Positive forecasts are sometimes also accompanied by euphoria.
A Gallery of Optimistic Forecasts
A selection of forecasts from recent months made by prominent companies and exponents in interviews on major platforms or at symposiums:
Larry Fink, Blackrock
Blackrock founder Fink sees Bitcoin soon rising to $700,000, especially if markets need to hedge against further currency devaluation and economic uncertainty.
Cathie Wood, Ark Invest
Founder and CEO Wood believes Bitcoin prices could climb to $1.5 million by 2030.
“Bitcoin will become a hedge against inflation and currency risks in emerging markets – institutional adoption could cause the price to explode.”
Brian Armstrong, Coinbase
Co-founder and CEO Armstrong expects Bitcoin to surpass the market capitalization of gold and the price per Bitcoin to reach $1 million.
“The US has numerous reserves – gold, oil, and various rare minerals – I believe the world is moving toward a Bitcoin standard for money.”
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered
Analyst Kendrick expects the Bitcoin price to reach $200,000 in 2025 and then exceed $500,000 in 2029.
A gallery of pessimistic forecasts
Some forecasts or stances from exponents and institutions published in interviews or on their own platforms:
Peter Schiff, economist and economic commentator
Schiff believes that Bitcoin has nothing to do with digital gold and could therefore fall below the $10,000 mark again.
“Bitcoin is a bubble that will burst – there is no intrinsic value.”
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
The BIS considers Bitcoin worthless in the long term.
“Cryptocurrencies do not fulfill a central function as money; their role is purely speculative.”
Nouriel Roubini, Economist
Roubini sees Bitcoin falling to $0 in the long term.
“Bitcoin is a pure fraud – not a means of payment, not a store of value, not a security.”
Paul Krugman, Economist and Nobel Prize Winner
Krugman denies Bitcoin any value and sees no future for the asset.
“Bitcoin will never fulfill its promise of serving as digital money.”
European Central Bank (ECB)
ECB representatives describe Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset that could drag investors down. Or, according to the authors, Bitcoin creates inequalities and widens the gap between rich and poor.
“The Bitcoin boom is artificially created – and the last twitching of a long-outdated construct”
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The IMF sees crypto assets as a threat to financial stability, calls for stricter global regulation, vigorously opposes Bitcoin, and warns against “parallel payment systems outside of state control.”
Those who selectively gather information fall into the pit of their own hopes.
In our galleries of positive and negative forecasts, we have omitted euphoric statements from dreamers and fantasists. We have quoted only reputable exponents and institutions of rank, name, and importance.
The conviction of the selected exponents may be considered credible, but their forecasts are nevertheless not reliable. Forecasts are generally rarely reliable because they are based on a framework of assumptions. They are based on conviction and experience, but also on belief and expectations.
Furthermore, forecasters simply cannot foresee future developments. Developments that render any kind of forecast obsolete overnight. What might actually come true under the best of circumstances may turn into the opposite if the weather deteriorates or unforeseeable events occur.
Forecasts for Bitcoin and crypto prices can be misleading when selective investors only perceive and accept those predictions that align with their own hopes and desires.
It is therefore advisable to consume forecasts with fantastic numbers as opinions and entertainment. Forecasts only become facts when the stated targets are actually achieved.
Following your convictions is a good thing. In the context of investments, however, it should be solely your own conviction. And this conviction is not born out of hope or whispering; true conviction is based on facts and tangible developments.
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