Recent developments in the Bitcoin market raise questions about whether the 2017 bull cycle will repeat itself in 2025. After reaching an all-time high above $100,000, the Bitcoin price has been in a multi-week downtrend. This correction has reignited the debate about the similarities and differences between the two cycles.
The Bitcoin market has undergone a remarkable development in recent years. After reaching an all-time high of over $100,000 in 2025, the price was followed by a downtrend lasting several weeks. This correction raises the question of whether the current cycle is comparable to the 2017 bull market, when Bitcoin peaked at $20,000 in December 2017. However, the recent downtrend marks the first major deviation from this pattern.
The correlation between the current cycle and the 2015-2017 cycle was astonishingly high at 92% at the beginning of the year. Despite the recent divergence, the correlation remains extremely high for financial markets at 91%. These similarities have led analysts to consider the possibility of a renewed uptrend, even if the current trend is heading in a different direction.
An important indicator of investor behavior is the MVRV ratio, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average acquisition price of all BTC held on the network. A sharp increase in the MVRV ratio indicates that investors are sitting on significant unrealized gains, which often signals market tops. A decline toward the realized price, on the other hand, signals that Bitcoin is trading near investors’ average acquisition price, which often marks a bottom.
One possible reason for the recent divergence could be the influence of data lags. Historical analyses show that changes in global liquidity, i.e., the total money supply in major economies, often take about two months to be reflected in Bitcoin’s price performance. Applying a 30-day lag to Bitcoin’s price performance compared to the 2017 cycle increases the correlation to 93%, which would be the highest correlation ever recorded between the two cycles.
While history doesn’t repeat itself exactly, it often exhibits similar patterns. While Bitcoin’s current cycle may not deliver the exponential gains of 2017, the underlying market psychology remains remarkably similar. Should Bitcoin resume its correlation with the delayed 2017 cycle, historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin could soon recover from the current correction, and a strong uptrend could follow.
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