We all keep asking ourselves the same question, why is Bitcoin going down? The price of Bitcoin (BTC) at the moment of writing this, is headed in a direction contrary to what we had all hoped for after the slight recovery due to a decline catalyzed be the Goldman Sachs fake news of September 5th. BTC looked like it had dipped for the last time on the 12th of September when it was valued at around $6,250. It would then briefly rally to $6,580 leading many to believe a bottom had been reached.
One such individual who believed this theory was the ex-fund manager and billionaire investor, Michael Novogratz, who tweeted the following:
I think we put in a low yesterday [12th September]. retouched the highs of late last year and the point of acceleration that led to the massive rally/bubble… markets like to retrace to the breakout..we retraced the whole of the bubble.
Why is Bitcoin going down?
Firstly, on the 16th and 17th of September, Bitcoin experienced its lowest trade volumes since November last year. Further checking coinmarketcap, we find that the 24-hour trade volume on these two days was valued between $3.1 Billion and $3.2 Billion rather than its usual levels above $3.5 Billion.
BTC low trade volumes on the 16th and 17th of September. Source, coinmarketcap.com
The low trade volumes are an indicator that there is reduced trading and interest in the digital asset of BTC. Less interest equals a bear market. The 24-hour trade volume today has since increased to $3.9 Billion and Bitcoin is currently trading at $6,278.
Secondly, there is an Mt. Gox creditors meeting on the 26th of September. We all know that the liquidation of the entire Bitcoin stash to pay creditors of the exchange could literally drop BTC to levels unseen in the last 2 years. The BTC held by the Mt. Gox trustee is in the thousands (over 170,000) and given current market conditions, it could tank the market.
The announcement of the September 26th meeting was made as follows.
“Meeting for reporting the status of property and submission deadline for a report under Article 125 of the Civil Rehabilitation Act: September 26, 2018”
Therefore, whatever information that will be reported on this date, could impact an already volatile market in a negative manner.
Thirdly, and keeping in mind that the crypto-market is still volatile, the deadline for an SEC verdict on the CBOE sponsored Bitcoin ETF is the 30th of September. Using past SEC announcements and decisions, if the verdict will be postponed, they will announce it before the 30th. The other side of the picture is if there is a rejection of the proposed rule change through the ETF application. In the case of the latter, the SEC will announce a rejection on the 30th.
The possibility of the CBOE sponsored Bitcoin ETF getting approved by the SEC are slim. This is why we have only explored the two possibilities highlighted above. If the SEC would embark on either of the two paths, the crypto market will respond with a knee-jerk reaction that might include panic selling.
In conclusion, and not wanting to sound too pessimistic, the next two weeks are probably one of the most uncertain weeks in the history of the value of BTC. All indicators point towards a bear market, but a crypto miracle is also a possibility before the 30th.
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Disclaimer: This article should not be taken as, and is not intended to provide, investment advice. Global Coin Report and/or its affiliates, employees, writers, and subcontractors are cryptocurrency investors and from time to time may or may not have holdings in some of the coins or tokens they cover. The author is long Bitcoin. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency and read our full disclaimer.
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