Ripple is still on a downtrend but is in the middle of a correction to its descending channel resistance. This area lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic resistance and is also close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If it holds as a ceiling, XRPUSD could head back down to the swing low or all the way down to the bottom of the channel.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. The gap between the moving averages is narrowing to reflect a pickup in selling pressure. Still, a larger pullback could find resistance at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point just slightly above the descending channel resistance.
Stochastic has been halfway through on its way down but has pulled up to the overbought area again. Another downward crossover seems to be materializing, though, so selling pressure might stay in play. RSI is on middle ground on its way up but appears to be turning lower, also suggesting a pickup in selling pressure.
Dollar price action could play a bigger role in determining XRPUSD direction rather than Ripple industry developments in the next trading sessions since the Fed interest rate decision is coming up. A rate hike of 0.25% is expected and this could shore up demand for the US currency across the board.
Of course traders are also keen to find out whether or not the FOMC can maintain its projection to hike three times this year, especially since there have been signs of a slowdown in growth for Q1 and in hiring for May. Traders could also focus on the potential impact of balance sheet adjustments on Fed policy biases as unwinding might reduce the need to hike rates.
Note that Ripple is the third largest cryptocurrency next to bitcoin and ethereum so it could trail the price action of the two. Compared to bitcoin and ethereum, Ripple eliminates time delays and ensures certainty of settlement, lowering transaction costs for counterparties.
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