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IOTA continues to trend lower against bitcoin and the dollar but there are signs that bulls are pushing harder. Against bitcoin, IOTA is below a descending trend line and is currently testing this resistance.
Using the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% retracement level near the trend line is keeping gains in check. Price could resume the drop to the swing low or to new lows if bearish pressure returns.
However, stochastic is on the move up to show that buyers are trying to regain control of IOTA price action. RSI is also heading north so price could follow suit. A break past the 0.00006 level could be enough to draw more buyers in, but the 100 SMA could still hold as dynamic resistance.
Speaking of moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 1-hour time frame so the path of least resistance is still to the downside. Also, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect strengthening bearish pressure.
Against the dollar, IOTA is starting to show more signs of ticking higher. Price has formed higher lows recently and is already testing the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point. A break above this area could eventually draw the moving averages closer together for an upward crossover.
Stochastic is moving up but appears to be turning from the overbought region to indicate rally exhaustion. Same goes for RSI which is also indicating overbought conditions. In that case, a move back to the support around 0.3600 or until 0.3300 could take place.
The US dollar is under a bit of selling pressure as traders are wary of who Trump might pick as the next Fed Chairperson. A dovish pick could mean further losses for the dollar against IOTA since this would dampen rate hike hopes for 2018. On the other hand, a hawkish pick could allow the dollar to regain ground across the board.
As for bitcoin, the looming hard fork and emergence of bitcoin gold has kept traders on edge. However, if the outcome is similar to the August upgrade, bitcoin could still see more upside versus IOTA.